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At first, Donald Trump appeared to adopt a resolute approach regarding Ukraine. After delivering threats of "serious consequences" during the summer if Putin carried on hindering truce talks, the former president ultimately introduced substantial restrictions on the Russian two largest oil companies, these major energy companies. This action seriously hindered Putin's ability to fund his aggression in Ukraine.

However, via his newly presented 28-point peace initiative for Ukraine, which was developed by American and Russian officials lacking Ukrainian or European involvement, he has apparently reverted to his Russia-friendly approach.

Rewarding Military Action

This initiative would in practice favor the Russian leader for attacking Ukraine while putting the country's democratic system in danger. Despite bold statements that "The nation's autonomy will be upheld", much of the proposal effectively undermine that very autonomy. This constitutes a Kremlin dream would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Demonstrating his business background, Trump seems to view the war as a simple border issue, as if giving Russia a part of Ukrainian soil will appease the leader. Yet, Putin's invasion is not only about controlling a damaged swath of deindustrialized land in Ukraine's east. Instead, it's about the nation's political system – and the Russian leader's obvious goal to weaken it so it ceases to functions as an enticing standard for the Russian people of the democratic leadership that Putin's deepening autocracy withholds them.

Land Concessions

While keeping in status the presently split regions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the plan would compel Ukraine to give up the entire this eastern territory. In addition to favoring Russia with territory that its military have been unsuccessful to occupy in over a decade of conflict, this giveaway would render Ukraine's defenses critically compromised.

This region is the location of Ukraine's highly-touted "defensive line", the entrenched protective structures that constitute a key obstacle to Russian advances. Trump would have the Ukrainian military leave these fortifications, providing Russian forces a clear route to the capital in case he subsequently choose to restart the hostilities.

Armed Forces Reductions

Then, in a action that would enable additional fighting simpler for Russia, Trump would force the nation to reduce the numbers of its armed forces from their current large number soldiers to a limit of this lower number. Significantly, the initiative places no such constraints on Russia's military.

Seemingly as a gesture to Russia's efforts to portray Ukraine's democratically elected leadership as extremists, the plan declares: "Every radical belief system and activities must be rejected and prohibited." Seemingly to emphasize this aspect, it demands that "The nation will hold elections in this period" of a peace deal. Meanwhile, the proposal places no requirement that Putin endanger his dictatorship by allowing votes in Russia.

Defense Guarantees

Certainly, the proposal makes the Russian Federation pledge not to "attack bordering nations" and to "establish in legislation its stance of non-violence towards Europe and Ukraine". But given that Putin has broken comparable treaties in the previous instances – including the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia committed to recognize Ukraine's borders in return for giving up its former Soviet atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow committed to a ceasefire and a return of captured areas in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – how should we trust Putin this time?

This explains Ukraine has been so insistent on western defense commitments. Although the plan warns of a "decisive unified military response" in case Russia restart its aggression, and states that "Ukraine will receive reliable defense commitments", the specifics include vague to concerning. The plan would not only block the nation alliance membership but also prevent Nato members from deploying forces on Ukrainian territory, thus precluding the reassurance force, likely led by European powers, on which Ukraine had been counting to deter Putin from replenishing his weakened military, rearming, and reinvading.

Global Response

Another side agreement reportedly would provide Ukraine with a similar to NATO defense commitment, in which any subsequent "significant, deliberate, and continuous armed attack" by Russia on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an attack threatening the stability and safety of the Western nations." This implies a military response. Yet unlike a capable Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's best deterrent against renewed Russian aggression – the success of the side agreement would depend on the commitment of Western powers, including Trump, to respond through arms to Putin's attacks, something they have {not