The Astonishing Rich Vein of Form Propels Villa's Improbable Push for Glory
Just 60 days in the past when the young forward stood on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as Unai Emery scolded him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if his displays were a symptom or the reason of the team's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, in contrast, the sideline response was much more joyous. When the England international swept in his second to restore Villa's lead, Emery tore off his coat, opened his arms and bellowed. Villa marched on to a tenth straight victory , after failing to win any of their first six fixtures, find themselves only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Hopefuls?
That’s a particularly tough question to answer. History, the traditional standing of this institution, indicates otherwise. Moreover, their performances haven't been entirely convincing in many games, even as the victories have piled up.
According to Opta, twice all season has the team registered an expected goals figure notably superior than the opposition. For a club who have strung together 10 in a row, Villa seem curiously susceptible – but at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach appears to be to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on their star man to save the day with a couple of crisp finishes. It happened at Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened against United.
The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the upright from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, Manchester United had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent they have to face in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, will not continue to thrashing the football into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists a different scenario where, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins could start finding the net regularly.
- The winger may rediscover the performer he showed during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually return from injury, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
However, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable the team would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And certainly earlier this season, no one envisioned Rogers now would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while establishing himself as an essential player for the national team.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it seems so surreal. As the match-winner stood in front of the Villa faithful when the game ended leading the celebrations, it was clear to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.