Starmer's Allies Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.

Major Hurdles in the Selection Procedure

Multiple members on the party's powerful NEC have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are anxious to avert any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several sources also shared concerns about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.